We talked about the historic surge of the ES in the newsletter on Tuesday. It witnessed seven consecutive green days for the first time since November 2021. Yesterday was a “red day,” but despite a little decline, it was swiftly recovered, with the ES ending only slightly below the recent highs. Yesterday’s 31-point micro-dip, the biggest since October 27th, illustrated the tremendous enormity of this recent 8-day surge. Since Friday, ES has been consolidating near the 4385 level, which will probably result in another significant move.
The Economic and Financial Affairs Council is a gathering of eurozone finance ministers. The 28 member states’ economic policies are coordinated by the council, whose actions and choices can have a significant impact on the overall economic well-being of the Eurozone.
In an attempt to strengthen bilateral relations and economic connections, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will meet today in San Francisco.
Currently, several of the most important multi-month resistances are extremely near to the ES chart. These include 4399, which backtests the same August 2023 low, 4418–24, a significant resistance cluster in October and a large support cluster in June and August, and 4433, the main downtrend channel from the August high.
NOTE: The SPX has recovered above its 200-day moving average and regained the long-term secular bull market uptrend line, which reaches back to the 2020 Covid collapse lows. This is a key turning point in the market. Returning above these critical long-term technical levels implies that the current correction might have ended and that the main bull market might be starting up again. It would be a positive technical development and raise the likelihood that the October lows signaled the conclusion of the decline if these levels could be held closing today.
There are a few noteworthy broad structures/levels, arranged from highest to lowest. 4425-30, 4399, 4376, 4336-26, 4279-83, and 4254-58 are some of these. While not all of these structures are included, they do offer several significant ones to take note of.
There are two primary scenarios to think about for today. In a bull market, we anticipate that the ES will hold onto its 4385 and 4375 supports before moving up to 4410, 4418, and 4425–30. In the event of a bear market, a failure at 4375–78 would be necessary to cause the large unwind that many have been anticipating. But we keep aiming higher as long as we are above that point.
We’re still experiencing a strong rise. My general inclination is that the rally with 4410, 4418, and 4425-30 magnets will continue as long as 4386-88, 4375-78, and dips hold. Finally, we can start to retreat if 4375 fails. When it does, it should be a significant event.
Disclosure: This is merely informational and is not financial advise. Kindly get advice from a qualified financial advisor prior to making any investing decisions.