2024 Home Run Derby betting: odds, predictions, picks

The House Run Derby area is likely one of the extra loaded ones we have had in recent times.

Two-time champion Pete Alonso returns for one more title run; younger shortstops Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. have turn out to be two of the game’s largest stars; Marcell Ozuna may very well be headed to his second straight 40-homer season; the good Jose Ramirez is again for a second attempt within the contest; Adolis Garcia, final 12 months’s postseason hero, will signify the host Texas Rangers; and Teoscar Hernandez and Alec Bohm spherical out the sector.

The Derby could have new guidelines this 12 months, most notably scrapping the bracket format. Now, the highest 4 sluggers from the primary spherical will advance to the semifinals (avoiding a state of affairs like 2021, when Shohei Ohtani had the third-highest whole within the first spherical however misplaced his head-to-head matchup). Within the semifinals, the 4 hitters will then be seeded through first-round totals for head-to-head matchups, with the winners reaching the finals.

The primary spherical and semifinals will final 3 minutes, with a most of 40 pitches thrown. Hitters will get a bonus interval with three outs, with every pitch both being a house run or an out (hitters obtain an additional out in the event that they hit a 425-foot dwelling run on this interval). The finals will characteristic a 2-minute spherical, with a most of 27 pitches, with the identical bonus interval to observe. This format ought to reward dwelling run effectivity over quantity of pitches.

Let’s break the sector down so as of betting odds.

Pete Alonso (+300)

Max exit velocity: 116.3 mph

Common launch angle: 15.1 levels

Why he may win: Alonso is competing in his fifth consecutive House Run Derby — clearly, the one participant who completely loves this contest. He received in 2019 and 2021 earlier than shedding to Julio Rodriguez within the semifinals in 2022 and within the first spherical in 2023, when J-Rod slugged a single-round file 41 dwelling runs. The oddsmakers are betting on that have as the favourite, and it is tough to disagree with that.

Why he may wrestle: Alonso is 29. No participant that previous has received since Todd Frazier in 2015. If the Derby is certainly extra of a younger man’s occasion, possibly Alonso is just too previous to tie Ken Griffey Jr. with a 3rd title.

My prediction: Alonso is hitting a career-high fee of groundballs in 2024. Does that matter within the Derby? I do not assume it does. Rodriguez is a excessive groundball hitter and had large rounds in 2022 and 2023. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a excessive fee of grounders and received final 12 months and had a memorable run in 2019 earlier than shedding to Alonso within the remaining. He is most likely the most secure guess to advance previous the primary spherical, however I’ve him shedding within the semis. Griffey will stay alone with three titles.

Adolis Garcia (+350)

Max exit velocity: 116.1 mph

Common launch angle: 15.1 levels

Is competing at dwelling an actual profit? Having coated a number of of those, getting the additional increase from the followers appears to assist. Lately, Frazier (2015) and Bryce Harper (2018) received at dwelling whereas Rodriguez’s file spherical final 12 months additionally got here at his dwelling park. And, sure, Garcia is hitting simply .215, however Harper was batting .214 on the break when he prevailed.

Why he may wrestle: Garcia competed final 12 months and had the second-lowest whole within the first spherical. He is additionally had a tough season on the plate, not that hitting in actual video games is similar as hitting BP pitches, as his chase fee has regressed after he confirmed enchancment throughout final 12 months’s career-best season. The brand new bat pace metric additionally has him in simply the 61st percentile — a lot decrease, for instance, than Alonso’s ninetieth percentile. Plus, with the disappointing season, he could press to win over the house followers.

My prediction: He will get out of the primary spherical however loses within the semifinals.

Marcell Ozuna (+425)

Max exit velocity: 114.6 mph

Common launch angle: 15.7 levels

Why he may win: He is mainly a match for Alonso and Garcia as a right-handed energy hitter with power and optimum launch angle. He is additionally having the very best season of the three. His superior metrics are all elite: Barrel fee, hard-hit fee, sweet-spot fee and common exit velocity, all within the ninety fifth percentile or increased.

Why he may wrestle: He is the oldest hitter right here at 33 (solely three hitters older than Ozuna have received, the final being David Ortiz in 2010). He is been excellent the previous two seasons, however he is hit a lot better in Atlanta, the place the ball carries fairly properly, slugging practically 200 factors increased at dwelling. Globe Life Park additionally barely favors left-handed hitters for dwelling runs over the previous three seasons (though solely Henderson and the switch-hitting Ramirez will profit from that).

My prediction: I am sticking with my concept that the Derby is for younger sluggers. It is also a tricky area. I’ve Ozuna going out within the first spherical.

Gunnar Henderson (+550)

Max exit velocity: 113.1 mph

Common launch angle: 9.5 levels

Why he may win: Henderson’s dwelling run whole is a bit of stunning given his comparatively low launch angle for an elite slugger, however he makes up for that with constant laborious contact — 99th percentile in hard-hit fee. Throw in his elite bat pace (96th percentile), youth (he simply turned 23) and that little wind tunnel to proper area and his possibilities look fairly good. He is been tuning up for the Derby taking BP from Norfolk supervisor Buck Britton, his pitcher for the competition.

Why he may wrestle: Can he sneak sufficient line drives over the right-field fence? He does not fairly match the max exit velocities of among the different hitters right here both. “He hits the ball so laborious, however he hits it at actually low angles, so simply getting the ball within the air,” Britton advised reporters the opposite day. “He is so robust. Basically, he is simply obtained to the touch it within the air and it is obtained an opportunity to go regardless of the place he hits it.” If Henderson will get right into a line-drive groove as a substitute of a fly-ball groove, it may very well be a fast exit.

My prediction: I just like the youth. I just like the swing. I just like the preparation. I like the lefty bat on this park. Henderson is my choose to win all of it.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+600)

Max exit velocity: 116.9

Common launch angle: 15.2

Why he may win: Have a look at these numbers above. He has elite most exit velocity and an ideal 15-degree launch angle. He has the abilities of a generational younger expertise together with important energy — his longest dwelling run of the season is 468 ft, the longest of any of the members. He is hit extra 425-foot dwelling runs this season than anybody within the area. Keep in mind, hitting a 425-foot dwelling run within the bonus interval unlocks an additional out — and that may very well be the distinction between advancing or going out.

Why he may wrestle: Witt ranks seventh of the eight gamers in precise dwelling runs hit this season. He is simply the fifth Royals participant to take part within the Derby — and not one of the earlier 4 superior previous the primary spherical.

My prediction: Henderson versus Witt is already turning right into a debate that reminds us of the Derek Jeter vs. Alex Rodriguez vs. Nomar Garciaparra arguments from 25 years in the past. Let’s have a look at that carry over into the Derby. The 2 younger shortstops will face off within the remaining.

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

Max exit velocity: 112.7

Common launch angle: 9.8

Why he may win: Hey, sleeper gamers have received earlier than — consider names like Bobby Abreu, Justin Morneau and Frazier — and Hernandez has had a pleasant season for the Dodgers hitting within the shadow of Ohtani. “I see the enjoyable that the fellows have and the way they get pleasure from it, and why not simply undergo the expertise and attempt to win every part?” Hernandez stated. He has enjoyable enjoying — possibly the proper angle wanted to win all of it. The one franchise to have extra Derby contestants than the Dodgers with no win is the Rockies, so possibly it is time.

Why he may wrestle: Quite a lot of the metrics do not level in his favor: His launch angle is down a bit this season, his superior metrics like exit velocity (83rd percentile) and bat pace (76th percentile), whereas robust, do not match among the hitters right here. He is additionally 31.

My prediction: I like Hernandez as a sleeper at these odds, however the numbers level to a first-round exit.

Jose Ramirez (+1200)

Max exit velocity: 116.6

Common launch angle: 18.1

Why he may win: The brand new guidelines that favor precision may benefit Ramirez, who generates energy within the common season from that optimum launch angle somewhat than power and elite bat pace (he is truly beneath common within the new bat pace metric). The switch-hitter has stated he’ll wait to see how he feels at Globe Life earlier than deciding which facet to hit from, however he is generated extra energy from the left facet all through his profession, which may assist him on this park. (He hit right-handed when he competed in 2022, however he did that as a result of he was battling a thumb damage and hit with much less ache from that facet.)

Why he may wrestle: Ramirez has the slowest bat and the bottom common exit velocity of the eight hitters within the area. That is often not an excellent mixture for the Derby, regardless of how properly his performs in video games — see Mookie Betts final season or Alex Bregman in 2018 and 2019 for smaller guys who did not do properly on this contest.

My prediction: I am glad Ramirez is giving it one other shot — whereas apparently wholesome this time — however the odds are in opposition to him. I am forecasting a first-round exit.

Alec Bohm (+1600)

Max exit velocity: 110.8 mph

Common launch angle: 12.4 levels

Why he may win: Hey, it feels prefer it is likely to be the Phillies’ 12 months, proper? Bohm is aware of he is an extended shot, however he has defined that his BP swing will likely be totally different from his sport swing, which is geared extra for line drives and make contact with. Plus, he is received a House Run Derby in a school summer time league in 2016. Scott Wingo, who threw to him that day, will likely be his pitcher.

Why he may wrestle: There is a cause Bohm has the longest odds. He has the fewest dwelling runs among the many eight hitters and going again to 2015, when gamers have been seeded by dwelling runs hit for the bracket format, the No. 8 man has by no means received (though Guerrero reached the ultimate in 2019). Whereas his launch angle has elevated this season, Bohm nonetheless lacks the best angle and energy of a lot of the different hitters.

My prediction: It could be a enjoyable story, however I agree with the oddsmakers and have Bohm shedding within the first spherical.